The Top Five Morgan Silver Dollars by Daniel J. Goevert
Why waste everyone’s time? Let’s skip the appetizers
and get to the meaty stuff right now: The Morgan silver dollars
poised to increase the most in value in the years ahead are the
1895, 1892-CC, 1894, 1878-CC, and the 1883-CC. Pretty bold prediction,
eh? At this point, the reader now has three options: (1) Stop reading
and act upon this information, (2) Stop reading and get on with
life, or (3) Continue on, evaluate the analytical approach to identify
the “Top Five” Morgan dollars, and then implement a
variation of (1) or (2) above. If you’ve gotten this far,
we encourage you to continue on with option (3).
First, a little background info on the Morgan silver dollar…
The Morgan silver dollar is today one of the most popular of
all collector coins. First minted in 1878 following the passage
of the Bland-Alison Act, the new dollar was named after its designer,
George T. Morgan. Political pressure by powerful silver mining
companies, in a gambit to stabilize the price of their commodity
at artificially high levels, created the impetus driving the legislative
action. Bland-Alison led to the overproduction of silver dollars,
resulting in millions of these unused “cartwheels”
languishing in bank and Treasury vaults. Indeed, few coins have
ever been released under more dubious circumstances than Morgan
silver dollars. Minting continued until 1904, and then again for
one more year in 1921, when the series finally came to a close.
For decades thereafter, Morgan dollars were largely snubbed by
hobbyists. Many dates, including those in mint state condition,
could be obtained for as little as $1.00. This situation shifted
dramatically in 1962, when the US government began selling original
1000-piece silver dollar Treasury bags to the public at face value.
Stories of rare dollar finds circulated widely, touching off a
veritable Morgan mania. Within a matter of months, all but a small
fraction of the federally owned coins were transferred from government
vaults to private hands, consequently expanding the Morgan dollar
collector base far beyond anything seen previously.
Since then, Morgan silver dollars have proudly perched themselves
atop the catbird seat of the numismatic world. Their physical
size, availability, beauty, and historical significance have consistently
attracted herds of new buyers. Numerous boom-turned-bust cycles
have come and gone, sometimes driven by pure speculative motives,
but from a long-term perspective, most Morgan dollar prices have
trended somewhat positive.
Unlike some controversial promoters in the past, I do not propose
purchasing Morgan silver dollars simply as investment vehicles.
However, for collectors hoping to satisfy their numismatic yearnings
AND acquire coins destined to be worth substantially more in the
future, Morgan dollars do present a few opportunities. As noted
above, as a whole, Morgans have gained moderately in value over
the years. The crucial challenge, then, is to identify which members
of this series have enjoyed the best growth patterns in the past.
The underlying logic is clear: coins that have demonstrated the
strongest gains over a long period of time are the coins best
positioned to show similar price advancements with the continued
passage of time.
In order to measure past performance and thus visualize Morgans
most likely headed toward a bullish future, I developed a systematic
approach. First, I researched individual Morgan dollar retail
prices as they existed in 1950, for a broad range of conditions,
and entered this data on a computer spreadsheet. Moving forward
in time, values from the years 1980, 1995, and 2000 were likewise
recorded. Finally, estimated selling prices in 2005 were juxtaposed
with counterpart data from those earlier years. Because grading
terminology has evolved over the 55 year period, certain assumptions
were made to progressively track price movements throughout the
time spectrum (e.g. an “Uncirculated” value in 1950
is equivalent to the “MS-60” of today).
For each date and condition, compounded annual return rates were
computed from 1950 to 2005. [Editorial note: compounded annual
return rate is the accepted yardstick for comparing investment
performance. Of course, coins do not grow at a guaranteed uniform
rate, such as bonds do, but if a coin is purchased at a certain
price, and that price is compared with the value of the coin at
some later date, the compounded annual return rate can be calculated
for the time period in between]. Return rate computations were
made from 1980 to 2005, 1995 to 2005, and 2000 to 2005. For each
Morgan dollar, the data was placed in tabular format.
Next, I calculated a “composite” score for each date
by averaging all the compounded return rates computed for that
date. I then ranked all the “composite” scores. The
Morgan silver dollars with the highest scores are as follows:
Date: Score: 1895 11.37 1892-CC 10.54 1894 10.43 1878-CC 10.28
1883-CC 10.25
So, it would appear, based on past performance over a period
of 55 years, the 1895 is the Morgan silver dollar with the best
hope of appreciating significantly in the years ahead, followed
by the 1892-CC, 1894, 1878-CC, and 1883-CC. Not surprisingly,
dollars of the Carson City Mint occupy 13 of the top 16 positions,
thanks to persistent collectors scrambling for bona fide artifacts
of the romantic American West. On the opposite end of the rankings,
Morgan silver dollars having the bleakest long term prospects
include the 1898, 1899-O, 1884, and the 1888-O, followed by the
1897 coming in dead last with a score of 2.66.
Anyone whose dual objective is to acquire Morgan silver dollars
with a bullish future ought to begin looking at the “Top
Five” above. Purchase coins in the best condition you can
afford, but be sure the coins are clean, problem-free, and CERTIFIED
by a reputable grading service. Be prepared to hold for at least
five years. Morgan dollars have skyrocketed in value in the last
three years, so some cooling off may be in order before the next
upward cycle.
If a polling firm were to survey the population of US coin collectors,
it is very possible that Morgan silver dollars would win the vote
as the most appealing coin in American coinage history. These
beautiful coins have been the heartbeat of the hobby for many
years, with no retreat in sight. Ironically, these same coins
spent the better part of a century hidden away in government vaults,
unseen, unwanted, and unloved. My, how times have changed!
About the author:
Author Daniel J. Goevert is the webmaster of US
Coin Values Advisor, specializing in coin value trends and
listing bullish US coins. Other offerings include detailed coin
collecting advice as well as an illustrated history of the United
States and the US Mint.
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